A powerful shortwave looks to plow through the central plains on Thursday.
This will cook up a batch of severe weather for the central and eastern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
As of now, the greatest chance for severe weather lies within the pink box in the above image. Central and eastern Kansas has the highest potential at the moment.
Keep in mind this is still a ways out. Things will change. Right now, the threat for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all there.
The chance for 1 or more tornadoes right now looks moderate. If this setup were to happen TODAY, the threat would be much higher. But this setup is still 6 days out.
A super potent shortwave will move through the plains bringing extreme wind shear for central and eastern Kansas.
This will aid severe thunderstorm development.
The image below shows the low level winds (the winds just off the deck). A widespread 50-65 miles per hour is situated over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.
The map below shows the surface conditions for the day. The low pressure center is located in western Kansas. A dryline will buldge into western Oklahoma and perhaps as far north as Kansas. A warmfront will be draped across Nebraska and Iowa.
Combine the strong southerly low level jet with the southeasterly surface flow and you have some extreme low level (0-1km) helicity to support tornadic development.
Moisture and instability will be a concern this day as values are on the lower end of what is required for a severe weather event.
However, as of right now, they look to be strong enough to support severe weather and perhaps tornadoes.
Below is a cutting edge tool I’ve recently developed called “The Wheel Of Tor”.
This tool plots the ideal ingredients for tornadoes from a scale of 1-10 for a specific location. 10 being the most optimal for tornado development and 0 being the least optimal. The more filled in it is, the higher the likelyhood for tornadoes.
This gives you a visual representation of what is there and what isn’t for a particular tornado setup.
The Wheel of Tor image below is for Salina, Kansas.
You can see the wind shear is there to suppor tornadoes, however the instability and moisture are on the slight to moderate end.