Tornado Outbreak Forecast Tutorial – 4-5-17 – Southeast U.S.

Tornado Outbreak Forecast Tutorial – 4-5-17 – Southeast U.S.

Forecast Breakdowns

There is a moderate risk 15% hatched tornado threat brewing across the southeast U.S. 4-5-17. In this video, I give you my tornado forecast and discuss weather the ingredients support a tornado outbreak or not using a new tool that I’ve developed called the Wheel Of Tor.

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Apr 05, 2017
Severe Weather Trolly Arriving 3-23 thru 3-25

Severe Weather Trolly Arriving 3-23 thru 3-25

Forecast Breakdowns

In this episode of The State Of The Weather, I talk about the severe weather that is beginning to ramp up 3-23-17 thru 3-25-17. View my severe weather target forecast + severe weather forecasting techniques.

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Mar 22, 2017
Early Spring Tornado Threat Increasing Thursday

Early Spring Tornado Threat Increasing Thursday

Forecast Breakdowns

Classic early spring severe weather outbreak becoming increasingly likely Thursday, March 23rd, 2017…

3-23-17-tornado-forecast

A powerful shortwave looks to plow through the central plains on Thursday.

This will cook up a batch of severe weather for the central and eastern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

As of now, the greatest chance for severe weather lies within the pink box in the above image. Central and eastern Kansas has the highest potential at the moment.

Keep in mind this is still a ways out. Things will change. Right now, the threat for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all there.

Tornado Threat

The chance for 1 or more tornadoes right now looks moderate. If this setup were to happen TODAY, the threat would be much higher. But this setup is still 6 days out.

A super potent shortwave will move through the plains bringing extreme wind shear for central and eastern Kansas.

This will aid severe thunderstorm development.

The image below shows the low level winds (the winds just off the deck). A widespread 50-65 miles per hour is situated over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.

The map below shows the surface conditions for the day. The low pressure center is located in western Kansas. A dryline will buldge into western Oklahoma and perhaps as far north as Kansas. A warmfront will be draped across Nebraska and Iowa.

Combine the strong southerly low level jet with the southeasterly surface flow and you have some extreme low level (0-1km) helicity to support tornadic development.

Moisture and instability will be a concern this day as values are on the lower end of what is required for a severe weather event.

However, as of right now, they look to be strong enough to support severe weather and perhaps tornadoes.

Below is a cutting edge tool I’ve recently developed called “The Wheel Of Tor”.

This tool plots the ideal ingredients for tornadoes from a scale of 1-10 for a specific location. 10 being the most optimal for tornado development and 0 being the least optimal. The more filled in it is, the higher the likelyhood for tornadoes.

This gives you a visual representation of what is there and what isn’t for a particular tornado setup.

The Wheel of Tor image below is for Salina, Kansas.

You can see the wind shear is there to suppor tornadoes, however the instability and moisture are on the slight to moderate end.

That Being Said…

We are still several days out and this data could still change significantly. However, there has been a strong signal for a strong low pressure system in the central Plains for many days now.

If you’d like to get access to the Wheel Of Tor, feel free to check out my free Ebook “The Tornado Chemical X Formula” below. In it, you’ll learn all of the ideal ingredients for tornadoes. It also teaches you how to use the Wheel of Tor and you’ll get a blank Wheel of Tor you can print out.

By signining up for it, you’ll also be the first to be notified about a special tornado forecasting competition that is launching within the next 3 weeks.

Stay tuned!

-Cody

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Mar 17, 2017
Severe Weather Outbreak Coming 2-28-17 (+ Forecast Tips)

Severe Weather Outbreak Coming 2-28-17 (+ Forecast Tips)

Forecast Breakdowns

An early season severe weather outbreak is possible on 2-28-17 and 2-29 across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Discover my tornado target area and learn some forecasting tips.

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Feb 27, 2017
Major Winter Storm Targeting Northern U.S. 2-24-17

Major Winter Storm Targeting Northern U.S. 2-24-17

Forecast Breakdowns

In this episode of The State Of The Weather, I talk about a major winter storm that is expected to slide across the northern U.S. during Friday (2-24-17). Watch my forecast breakdown and learn some forecasting techniques.

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Feb 25, 2017
31″ of Snow For the Plains thru March 1? True or False?

31″ of Snow For the Plains thru March 1? True or False?

Forecast Breakdowns

If you haven’t heard about the 2-3 feet of snow that might come to the plains and midwest, here’s what you need to know…

I think we can all agree there is currently a “Fake News” outbreak right now. It’s hard to distinguish what is reality and what is not reality.

The “fake news” outbreak is starting to spread into the world of meteorology. I’ll come back to that in a second.

But first, the image above is a computer model image showing 1-3 feet for the northern plains and midwest regions through March 1st. This image was posted by a page on social media Sunday and went viral in rapid fashion.

That’s a tell people believe it, or want to.

It wouldn’t get shared otherwise. Would you share someting you don’t believe in?

That said, you might be wondering, is this image actually going to happen in the real world? Are the northern plains and midwest going to see 1-3 fee through March 1st?

Here’s my take on it: I would rate this scenario unlikely.

But… not impossible (more on that in a bit).

Fake Forecasts? No. Imaginary Forecasts? Yes

I’ve heard the term “Fake Forecasts” to describe these out of control weather model images being tossed around. However, considering no one can 100% predict the future, there are no such thing as “fake forecasts”.

It’s anyone’s game. The future will do what it wants. A better word to describe these crazy model images are what I call “Imaginary Forecasts”.

Imaginary Forecasts are forecasts that have a very heavy bias load associated with them via the forecaster’s motives. They could happen, but are most likely a fairy tale.

Three common reasons that Imaginary Forecasts develop are:

1.) The forecaster wants a snowstorm, therefore, favors all data supporting that snowstorm via confirmation bias.

2.) The forecaster is engineering a weapons-grade hype storm that will help his or her forecast spread on social media like wild fire. (Which will get them more advertising clicks, likes, etc.)

3.) They are doing neither 1 nor 2 but rather taking a massive forecasting risk.

I have no problem with any of these scenarios as the internet is free speech. Hype is absolutely necessary in some scenarios. And crazy storms are fun to talk about!

However, if your part of the general public, all of this noise may confuse you. We have entered an age where distinguishing truthful stuff from untruthful biased stuff can be quite a challenge.

Let’s be simplistic here and say that out of 10 winters, you may see a scenario like the weather models map play out once or twice. Right off the bat, we are left with 2 out of 10 odds (20%).

On top of that, we are relying on a computer model going out 2 weeks into the future. Relying on one model image from one model type from one model run is a recipe for a big forecasting disaster 9 times out of 10.

Those two alone are lowering your odds of a succesful forecast even more.

Here’s an image developed by the National Weather Service called the “Pachinko Effect”. It shows how the physics packages in models aren’t 100% accurate. They can begin to make unrealistic decisions overtime.

The Chaos Theory

Models are affected by something called the Chaos Theory.

The Chaos Theory says that if a butterfly flaps its wings in California, it could cause air disturbances that grow and grow overtime, affecting everything else.

A couple weeks later, it could have theoretically changed the weather patterns enough to cause a thunderstorm in the Ozarks of Missouri.

Perhaps the butterfly could have flapped it’s wings twice and caused the 30″ snowstorm that suppose to hit the northern plains turn into a 6″ snowstorm.

I’m being really simplistic here, but it’s way easier to see the Chaos Theory’s effects this way.

Researchers and technology have not yet found away to make weather computer models immune to this. They have gotten significantly better at minimizing it’s effects with storms less than 7 days out.

Capturing a “crisp, clean picture” of anything past a week out is making a deal with the devil. The model image above shows a “crisp, clean picture”. It’s so crisp it has snow amounts shown for counties down to the decimal.

Therefore, it is important to be aware of these Imaginary Forecasts being posted on social media.

What To Trust and What Not To Trust

Human bias removal and forecasting techniques still are important in forecasts today.

Models usually only forecast large broad features moderately well past about 5-7 days out. This includes large scale weather patterns. Specific snow amounts are extremely hard to predict this far out, especially when using one image from an out of control weather model.

If this scenario does happen to the T, it would be one of those 1 out of 10 or 20 times it happens.

If you want to know how I decipher a good forecast from a bad forecast online, you can read my blog post here on how to spot a clickbait trap.

The Verdict

With all of that said, I am predicting a significant uptick in activity for the central U.S. for lots of rain, wind, and snow to come late February into March. The northern and central plains/midwest look to recieve well above normal rain and snowfall. 

This all starts Friday 2-24-17 as a winter storm looks to zip through the northern and central U.S.

But there are still no obvious consistent signals for specific snow amounts,  storm strength, number of storms, and location. I’d be making a deal with the devil if I forecasted them.

When there are good signals, I’ll let you know.

If you enjoyed this post, you should follow my Facebook Page Below.

I do live forecast breakdowns across the U.S. where I track big storms across the U.S. and answer your questions. You’ll also find forecasting tutorials on here.

And after you do, feel free to share this post with your friends!

Stay safe,

-Cody

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Feb 20, 2017